Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP052023 230811 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     14.20    177.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   100.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   100.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     40.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     15.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     52.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        22.8  26.9  25.9  30.4  26.6  27.6  25.5  18.4  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   46.0  36.0  27.0  26.0  38.0  70.0  45.0  50.0  N  U  U  U  U  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]         55.1  57.3  59.6  62.0  64.3  65.0  65.0  65.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    10.0  24.0 -19.0 -26.0  21.0  37.0  16.0  -2.0  U  U  U VU  U  N  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   38.0  38.0  40.0  43.0  48.0  56.0  61.0  66.0 VU VU VU VU  U  U  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   7.0   8.0   7.0   3.0   6.0   4.0   5.0   7.0  N  U  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        2.5%        1.2%        1.8%
 25kt / 24h        0.9%        2.0%        1.4%
 30kt / 24h        0.9%        1.0%        1.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.9%        0.9%        0.9%
 40kt / 24h        0.9%        0.9%        0.9%
 45kt / 36h        7.1%        0.7%        3.9%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.12

 EP052023 230811 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     14.20    177.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   100.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   100.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     52.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        22.8  26.9  25.9  30.4  26.6  27.6  25.5  18.4  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   38.0  38.0  40.0  43.0  48.0  56.0  61.0  66.0 VF VF VF VF  F  F  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   7.0   8.0   7.0   3.0   6.0   4.0   5.0   7.0  N  F  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.3%        8.9%        4.6%