Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP052023 230812 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     17.10    178.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    75.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    75.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -15.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     47.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     23.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.70             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     59.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        28.0  23.0  28.1  27.2  23.7  22.1  18.1  17.4  N  N  N  N  N  N  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   25.0  29.0  45.0  62.0  40.0  32.0  18.0  13.0  U  U  N  N  N  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         90.0  90.0  90.0  89.3  82.3  82.3  82.3  73.6  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   -21.0  50.0  20.0  35.0  25.0  18.0   2.0 -33.0 VU  N  U  N  U  U  U VU
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   42.0  43.0  43.0  44.0  49.0  55.0  57.0  57.0 VU VU VU VU  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   9.0   6.0   2.0  -1.0   5.0   4.0   8.0   5.0  U  N  N  N  N  N  U  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        1.0%        1.2%        1.1%
 25kt / 24h        1.4%        5.6%        3.5%
 30kt / 24h        1.3%        3.2%        2.3%
 35kt / 24h        1.3%        3.1%        2.2%
 40kt / 24h        1.3%        3.1%        2.2%
 45kt / 36h        1.2%        0.9%        1.1%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 55kt / 48h        0.3%        1.5%        0.9%
 70kt / 48h        0.1%        0.1%        0.1%
 65kt / 72h        1.4%        0.3%        0.9%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.52

 EP052023 230812 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     17.10    178.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    75.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    75.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -15.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     59.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        28.0  23.0  28.1  27.2  23.7  22.1  18.1  17.4  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   42.0  43.0  43.0  44.0  49.0  55.0  57.0  57.0 VF VF VF VF  F  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   9.0   6.0   2.0  -1.0   5.0   4.0   8.0   5.0  F  N  N  N  N  N  F  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.1%        2.2%        1.2%