Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP052023 230813 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     18.00    175.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    55.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    55.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -20.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     33.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     23.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      5.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     64.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        27.7  29.9  27.5  27.3  25.8  24.7  25.4  21.3  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   60.0  63.0  51.0  46.0  41.0  23.0  16.0  20.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0 107.0 104.6  93.6  95.7  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    23.0   7.0  12.0  26.0  25.0  18.0 -14.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   46.0  47.0  50.0  52.0  58.0  60.0  63.0  62.0 VU VU  U  U  U  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   3.0   1.0   1.0   2.0   5.0  10.0   6.0   7.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.4%        0.2%
 25kt / 24h        0.5%        2.9%        1.7%
 30kt / 24h        0.3%        1.2%        0.7%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.9%        0.5%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.9%        0.5%
 45kt / 36h        0.3%        0.8%        0.6%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 55kt / 48h        0.3%        1.2%        0.8%
 70kt / 48h        0.1%        0.1%        0.1%
 65kt / 72h        2.9%        0.5%        1.7%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.66

 EP052023 230813 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     18.00    175.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    55.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    55.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -20.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     64.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        27.7  29.9  27.5  27.3  25.8  24.7  25.4  21.3  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   46.0  47.0  50.0  52.0  58.0  60.0  63.0  62.0 VF VF  F  F  F  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   3.0   1.0   1.0   2.0   5.0  10.0   6.0   7.0  N  N  N  N  N  F  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.5%        0.2%