Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP052023 230814 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     19.30    169.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]    10.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     51.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     41.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      6.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    107.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        25.5  24.3  25.5  29.0  25.1  17.4  12.7  14.0  N  N  N  N  N  F  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   48.0  44.0  34.0  24.0  20.0  16.0  12.0  12.0  N  N  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        130.0 130.0 130.0 129.3 115.7 117.9 120.1 120.1  F  F  F  F  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    42.0  43.0  39.0  18.0   9.0   9.0  18.0  53.0  N  N  N  U  U  U  U  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   58.0  59.0  60.0  60.0  62.0  59.0  58.0  49.0  U  U  N  N  N  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   5.0   9.0  12.0  12.0   9.0   5.0   1.0   0.0  N  U  U  U  U  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.2%        1.2%        0.7%
 25kt / 24h        1.5%       10.1%        5.8%
 30kt / 24h        0.5%        3.9%        2.2%
 35kt / 24h        0.2%        3.3%        1.8%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        3.3%        1.7%
 45kt / 36h        0.6%        7.4%        4.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        1.8%        0.9%
 55kt / 48h        2.1%        4.0%        3.1%
 70kt / 48h        0.3%        1.4%        0.8%
 65kt / 72h        9.1%        7.0%        8.0%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.50

 EP052023 230814 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     19.30    169.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]    10.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    107.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        25.5  24.3  25.5  29.0  25.1  17.4  12.7  14.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   58.0  59.0  60.0  60.0  62.0  59.0  58.0  49.0  F  F  N  N  N  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   5.0   9.0  12.0  12.0   9.0   5.0   1.0   0.0  N  F  F  F  F  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%