Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP052023 230814 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     19.80    168.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     50.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     45.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      6.70             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     98.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        26.3  28.3  32.2  25.1  15.9  10.9  10.5  14.1  N  N  U  N  F  F  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   47.0  37.0  26.0  19.0  25.0  11.0   9.0   9.0  N  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        125.0 125.0 124.3 115.1 108.6 108.6 102.4 100.5  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    12.0  24.0  35.0 -27.0  22.0   1.0  60.0  17.0  U  U  N VU  U  U  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   60.0  59.0  57.0  57.0  58.0  62.0  55.0  49.0  N  U  U  U  U  N  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   9.0  13.0  11.0   9.0  11.0   0.0   6.0   3.0  U  U  U  U  U  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        1.1%        1.8%        1.5%
 25kt / 24h        1.9%       10.4%        6.1%
 30kt / 24h        0.9%        4.3%        2.6%
 35kt / 24h        0.5%        3.8%        2.1%
 40kt / 24h        0.3%        3.8%        2.0%
 45kt / 36h        1.7%       10.7%        6.2%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        3.2%        1.6%
 55kt / 48h        4.0%        5.7%        4.9%
 70kt / 48h        1.0%        2.4%        1.7%
 65kt / 72h        6.1%        6.8%        6.4%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.40

 EP052023 230814 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     19.80    168.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     98.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        26.3  28.3  32.2  25.1  15.9  10.9  10.5  14.1  N  N  N  N  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   60.0  59.0  57.0  57.0  58.0  62.0  55.0  49.0  N  F  F  F  F  N  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   9.0  13.0  11.0   9.0  11.0   0.0   6.0   3.0  F  F  F  F  F  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.1%        0.1%        0.1%