Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP052023 230815 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     20.50    167.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     12.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      8.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      3.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     93.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        30.4  25.0  15.7  13.5  15.2  17.1  23.6  34.5  N  N  F  F  F  F  N  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   34.0  23.0  19.0  22.0  21.0  11.0  13.0  12.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        135.0 129.6 122.9 120.7 120.7 118.6 114.4 110.5  F  F  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    30.0   3.0 -10.0 -20.0  22.0  32.0  43.0  55.0  N  U  U VU  U  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   56.0  56.0  57.0  58.0  59.0  57.0  58.0  58.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   6.0   8.0   9.0  10.0   3.0   5.0   5.0   9.0  N  U  U  U  N  N  N  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.4%        0.2%
 25kt / 24h        0.5%        4.0%        2.2%
 30kt / 24h        0.3%        1.3%        0.8%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        1.0%        0.5%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        1.0%        0.5%
 45kt / 36h        0.3%        5.5%        2.9%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        1.3%        0.6%
 55kt / 48h        1.7%        2.6%        2.2%
 70kt / 48h        0.9%        1.2%        1.1%
 65kt / 72h        4.7%        2.9%        3.8%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.20

 EP052023 230815 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     20.50    167.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     93.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        30.4  25.0  15.7  13.5  15.2  17.1  23.6  34.5  N  N  U  U  U  N  N  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   56.0  56.0  57.0  58.0  59.0  57.0  58.0  58.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   6.0   8.0   9.0  10.0   3.0   5.0   5.0   9.0  N  F  F  F  N  N  N  F


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%