Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP052023 230815 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     21.40    167.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     26.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     23.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      3.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     91.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        27.4  17.0  16.3  14.9  19.4  19.3  29.8  24.1  N  F  F  F  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   24.0  18.0  22.0  22.0   9.0  14.0  11.0  10.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        132.0 122.9 118.6 120.7 116.5 112.4 116.5 114.4  F  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   -16.0   4.0  36.0  34.0  16.0  13.0  73.0  16.0  U  U  N  N  U  U  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   57.0  58.0  58.0  59.0  55.0  56.0  54.0  54.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  12.0  10.0  12.0   8.0   9.0   5.0  14.0  11.0  U  U  U  U  U  N  U  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.5%        0.3%
 25kt / 24h        0.6%        5.2%        2.9%
 30kt / 24h        0.3%        1.8%        1.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        1.4%        0.7%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        1.4%        0.7%
 45kt / 36h        0.3%        6.9%        3.6%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        1.7%        0.8%
 55kt / 48h        1.8%        2.4%        2.1%
 70kt / 48h        0.9%        1.3%        1.1%
 65kt / 72h        4.8%        2.9%        3.9%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.04

 EP052023 230815 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     21.40    167.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     91.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        27.4  17.0  16.3  14.9  19.4  19.3  29.8  24.1  N  N  U  U  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   57.0  58.0  58.0  59.0  55.0  56.0  54.0  54.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  12.0  10.0  12.0   8.0   9.0   5.0  14.0  11.0  F  F  F  F  F  N  F  F


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%