Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP052023 230815 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     22.50    167.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     9.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     22.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     18.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      3.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    100.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        20.2  14.0  11.1  18.7  22.6  27.6  28.5  29.5  N  F  F  N  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   19.0  24.0  19.0  11.0  14.0  13.0  11.0  10.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        120.7 118.6 120.7 120.7 114.4 120.7 120.7 118.6  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]     2.0  -1.0  -1.0  10.0  65.0  65.0  32.0 -12.0  U  U  U  U  N  N  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   55.0  57.0  56.0  57.0  56.0  56.0  57.0  55.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   6.0  10.0   5.0   6.0   7.0  12.0  12.0  14.0  N  U  N  N  N  U  U  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.1%        0.7%        0.4%
 25kt / 24h        0.6%        6.2%        3.4%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        2.2%        1.2%
 35kt / 24h        0.2%        1.8%        1.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        1.8%        0.9%
 45kt / 36h        0.4%        8.8%        4.6%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        2.4%        1.2%
 55kt / 48h        1.2%        2.1%        1.7%
 70kt / 48h        1.1%        1.5%        1.3%
 65kt / 72h        2.5%        2.7%        2.6%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 27.86

 EP052023 230815 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     22.50    167.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     9.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    100.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        20.2  14.0  11.1  18.7  22.6  27.6  28.5  29.5  N  U  U  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   55.0  57.0  56.0  57.0  56.0  56.0  57.0  55.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   6.0  10.0   5.0   6.0   7.0  12.0  12.0  14.0  N  F  N  N  N  F  F  F


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%