Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP052023 230816 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     24.50    168.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    25.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    25.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     12.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      4.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      4.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    121.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        13.0  14.2  17.2  21.0  26.3  29.4  39.2  34.6  F  F  F  N  N  N  U  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   19.0  12.0   9.0  11.0  11.0   8.0   5.0   5.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        127.9 130.1 127.9 127.9 132.3 130.1 123.6 121.5  N  F  N  N  F  F  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    -5.0  13.0  20.0  -4.0   5.0 -12.0 -37.0 -28.0  U  U  U  U  U  U VU VU
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   56.0  56.0  52.0  50.0  50.0  50.0  51.0  54.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   5.0   5.0   7.0   6.0  10.0  10.0   8.0   5.0  N  N  N  N  U  U  U  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.6%        0.3%
 25kt / 24h        0.5%        4.4%        2.4%
 30kt / 24h        0.3%        1.5%        0.9%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        1.2%        0.6%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        1.2%        0.6%
 45kt / 36h        0.2%        6.1%        3.2%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        1.5%        0.8%
 55kt / 48h        0.3%        1.7%        1.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.2%        0.9%        0.5%
 65kt / 72h        0.2%        1.3%        0.8%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 27.90

 EP052023 230816 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     24.50    168.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    25.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    25.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    121.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        13.0  14.2  17.2  21.0  26.3  29.4  39.2  34.6  U  U  N  N  N  N  F  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   56.0  56.0  52.0  50.0  50.0  50.0  51.0  54.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   5.0   5.0   7.0   6.0  10.0  10.0   8.0   5.0  N  N  N  N  F  F  F  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%