Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP062023 230805 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     17.80    106.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     83.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     69.00             F
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    130.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        20.5  20.8  26.8  28.6  25.9  23.9  18.0  15.3  N  N  N  N  N  N  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   42.0  41.0  19.0  14.0   4.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  N  N  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        135.0 134.3 122.9 112.4  85.0  58.7  47.6  44.7  F  F  N  N  N  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   -13.0  21.0   5.0  10.0  49.0  35.0 -25.0 -27.0  U  U  U  U  N  N VU VU
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   75.0  72.0  69.0  69.0  63.0  62.0  58.0  55.0  F  N  N  N  N  N  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   4.0  -6.0 -18.0 -19.0 -16.0 -10.0 -16.0  -2.0  N  F VF VF VF  F VF  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.9%        3.9%        2.4%
 25kt / 24h        3.1%       17.3%       10.2%
 30kt / 24h        1.1%        8.5%        4.8%
 35kt / 24h        1.1%        7.6%        4.3%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        7.0%        3.5%
 45kt / 36h        0.4%       14.8%        7.6%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        5.7%        2.9%
 55kt / 48h        0.5%        0.4%        0.5%
 70kt / 48h        0.4%        2.4%        1.4%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        2.2%        1.1%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.32

 EP062023 230805 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     17.80    106.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    130.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        20.5  20.8  26.8  28.6  25.9  23.9  18.0  15.3  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   75.0  72.0  69.0  69.0  63.0  62.0  58.0  55.0  U  N  N  N  N  N  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   4.0  -6.0 -18.0 -19.0 -16.0 -10.0 -16.0  -2.0  N  U VU VU VU  U VU  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%