Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP062023 230805 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     18.80    107.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     65.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     41.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    124.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        20.0  26.4  25.4  22.7  25.2  18.8  17.7  13.7  N  N  N  N  N  N  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   35.0  19.0  14.0  10.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        129.3 117.9 103.5  84.6  52.8  44.2  37.7  35.8  F  N  N  N  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    44.0  10.0 -18.0  12.0  18.0 -23.0  -1.0  -4.0  N  U  U  U  U VU  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   72.0  71.0  68.0  64.0  62.0  58.0  50.0  48.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -5.0 -19.0 -24.0 -20.0 -18.0 -19.0  -6.0  -1.0  F VF VF VF VF VF  F  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        1.7%        3.7%        2.7%
 25kt / 24h        2.1%       11.3%        6.7%
 30kt / 24h        1.1%        5.1%        3.1%
 35kt / 24h        1.1%        4.5%        2.8%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        4.4%        2.2%
 45kt / 36h        0.3%        9.1%        4.7%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        3.4%        1.7%
 55kt / 48h        0.6%        0.6%        0.6%
 70kt / 48h        0.6%        1.6%        1.1%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 27.68

 EP062023 230805 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     18.80    107.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    124.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        20.0  26.4  25.4  22.7  25.2  18.8  17.7  13.7  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   72.0  71.0  68.0  64.0  62.0  58.0  50.0  48.0  N  N  N  N  N  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -5.0 -19.0 -24.0 -20.0 -18.0 -19.0  -6.0  -1.0  U VU VU VU VU VU  U  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%