Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP062023 230806 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     19.60    108.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    15.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     65.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     32.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    113.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        26.9  26.2  23.9  25.6  24.9  17.7  16.4  16.9  N  N  N  N  N  F  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   20.0  14.0  11.0   2.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        110.1  95.5  76.1  59.2  38.3  29.1  27.7  24.0  N  N  U  U  U VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    -2.0 -52.0  10.0  21.0  13.0 -35.0  -9.0  -5.0  U VU  U  U  U VU  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   70.0  67.0  62.0  62.0  59.0  52.0  50.0  46.0  N  N  N  N  U  U  U VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -22.0 -23.0 -20.0 -17.0 -17.0 -12.0  -3.0  -1.0 VF VF VF VF VF  F  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        8.8%        7.3%        8.1%
 25kt / 24h        3.9%       11.0%        7.4%
 30kt / 24h        3.2%        5.2%        4.2%
 35kt / 24h        3.2%        5.0%        4.1%
 40kt / 24h        0.5%        4.8%        2.7%
 45kt / 36h        0.3%        9.1%        4.7%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        3.8%        1.9%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 26.98

 EP062023 230806 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     19.60    108.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.