Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP062023 230806 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     20.40    109.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    55.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    55.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    20.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     66.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     50.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.50             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     88.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        27.3  24.6  24.1  26.8  19.5  18.4  13.3  18.1  N  N  N  N  N  F  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   15.0  12.0   2.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         85.5  66.1  49.2  34.7  27.4  17.7  14.0  14.0  N  U  U VU VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   -42.0   0.0  17.0  14.0 -13.0 -33.0 -15.0 -20.0 VU  U  U  U  U VU  U VU
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   66.0  62.0  60.0  57.0  54.0  48.0  49.0  46.0  N  N  N  U  U  U  U VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -21.0 -22.0 -18.0 -21.0 -19.0  -7.0  -1.0  -2.0 VF VF VF VF VF  F  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       12.9%        5.9%        9.4%
 25kt / 24h        2.0%        5.2%        3.6%
 30kt / 24h        2.0%        2.4%        2.2%
 35kt / 24h        2.0%        2.2%        2.1%
 40kt / 24h        1.0%        2.2%        1.6%
 45kt / 36h        0.3%        5.6%        3.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 26.04

 EP062023 230806 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     20.40    109.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    55.