Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP062023 230806 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     21.40    110.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    60.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    60.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    15.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     62.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     37.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     89.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        27.7  25.3  27.6  23.7  17.2  15.1  18.0  19.0  N  N  N  N  F  F  F  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   12.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         50.8  44.2  28.7  28.7  17.6  12.1   9.0   6.7  U  U VU VU VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   -18.0  10.0 -16.0 -23.0 -24.0  -5.0   7.0  27.0  U  U  U VU VU  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   63.0  61.0  59.0  58.0  53.0  52.0  47.0  44.0  N  N  U  U  U  U VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -23.0 -17.0 -26.0 -18.0 -17.0  -2.0   0.0  -2.0 VF VF VF VF VF  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        6.9%        2.1%        4.5%
 25kt / 24h        0.6%        1.4%        1.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.4%        0.6%        0.5%
 35kt / 24h        0.4%        0.5%        0.5%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 25.00

 EP062023 230806 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     21.40    110.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    60.