Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP062023 230806 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     22.30    112.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    60.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    60.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     22.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      3.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      7.70             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     72.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        24.6  27.7  23.7  20.5  18.1  15.4  21.2  24.4  N  N  N  N  F  F  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         29.7  28.7  22.4  20.0  12.7   9.0   6.7   3.2 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    29.0 -13.0 -13.0 -53.0 -27.0 -19.0 -14.0  27.0  N  U  U VU VU  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   61.0  58.0  57.0  55.0  49.0  48.0  43.0  43.0  N  U  U  U  U  U VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -17.0 -22.0 -19.0 -17.0  -4.0   0.0  -3.0  -2.0 VF VF VF VF  F  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.4%        0.2%        0.3%
 25kt / 24h        0.1%        0.1%        0.1%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 23.66

 EP062023 230806 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     22.30    112.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    60.