Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP072023 230812 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     14.60    112.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     52.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     34.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     85.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        18.8  23.4  22.5  19.7  14.3  18.7  19.1  24.8  N  N  N  N  F  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   34.0  22.0  17.0  19.0  22.0  20.0  14.0   6.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        134.3 129.6 127.3 122.9 120.7 116.5 104.8 101.2  F  F  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]     5.0  44.0  54.0  61.0  31.0  28.0  -7.0 -10.0  U  N  N  N  N  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   66.0  64.0  63.0  61.0  56.0  54.0  50.0  47.0  N  N  N  N  U  U  U VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -3.0  -6.0  -3.0  -1.0   2.0   0.0  -4.0  -3.0  N  F  N  N  N  N  F  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        1.3%        3.3%        2.3%
 25kt / 24h        5.7%       22.1%       13.9%
 30kt / 24h        2.5%       10.3%        6.4%
 35kt / 24h        0.9%        9.4%        5.2%
 40kt / 24h        0.9%        9.4%        5.1%
 45kt / 36h        5.0%       34.2%       19.6%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%       16.3%        8.1%
 55kt / 48h        9.9%       12.9%       11.4%
 70kt / 48h        6.2%       12.6%        9.4%
 65kt / 72h        7.3%       14.5%       10.9%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.20

 EP072023 230812 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     14.60    112.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     85.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        18.8  23.4  22.5  19.7  14.3  18.7  19.1  24.8  N  N  N  N  U  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   66.0  64.0  63.0  61.0  56.0  54.0  50.0  47.0  N  N  N  N  F  F  F VF
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -3.0  -6.0  -3.0  -1.0   2.0   0.0  -4.0  -3.0  N  U  N  N  N  N  U  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%