Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP072023 230813 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     14.90    113.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     28.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      5.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.50             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     98.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        22.0  20.8  19.0  15.8  18.8  21.2  17.2  25.3  N  N  N  F  N  N  F  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   20.0  17.0  19.0  20.0  24.0  19.0  11.0   1.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        124.6 122.3 120.1 120.1 115.7 101.6  99.8  86.1  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    42.0  55.0  59.0  58.0  52.0  28.0 -45.0 -10.0  N  N  N  N  N  U VU  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   64.0  61.0  61.0  59.0  57.0  53.0  46.0  37.0  N  N  N  U  U  U VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -4.0  -1.0   0.0   1.0   0.0  -2.0  -6.0  -2.0  F  N  N  N  N  N  F  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        2.6%        3.4%        3.0%
 25kt / 24h        8.1%       23.1%       15.6%
 30kt / 24h        5.1%       10.8%        8.0%
 35kt / 24h        2.7%       10.8%        6.7%
 40kt / 24h        1.6%       10.8%        6.2%
 45kt / 36h        7.6%       31.1%       19.3%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%       14.4%        7.2%
 55kt / 48h        7.3%        7.3%        7.3%
 70kt / 48h        7.3%        9.0%        8.2%
 65kt / 72h        5.1%        9.1%        7.1%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.16

 EP072023 230813 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     14.90    113.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     98.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        22.0  20.8  19.0  15.8  18.8  21.2  17.2  25.3  N  N  N  U  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   64.0  61.0  61.0  59.0  57.0  53.0  46.0  37.0  N  N  N  F  F  F VF VF
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -4.0  -1.0   0.0   1.0   0.0  -2.0  -6.0  -2.0  U  N  N  N  N  N  U  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%