Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP072023 230813 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     15.00    114.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    15.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     25.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      2.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     83.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        20.5  17.9  15.1  17.4  17.5  17.2  19.1  23.2  N  F  F  F  F  F  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   17.0  19.0  21.0  23.0  23.0  13.0   3.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        112.3 110.1 107.9 107.9  93.5  89.8  77.7  74.6  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    72.0  67.0  52.0  44.0  18.0  13.0 -16.0 -17.0  N  N  N  N  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   61.0  58.0  57.0  55.0  54.0  48.0  44.0  34.0  N  U  U  U  U  U VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   1.0   0.0   0.0  -1.0   2.0  -1.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       10.2%        6.4%        8.3%
 25kt / 24h       17.7%       31.5%       24.6%
 30kt / 24h       13.2%       17.9%       15.6%
 35kt / 24h        9.8%       17.9%       13.9%
 40kt / 24h        9.8%       17.9%       13.9%
 45kt / 36h       13.2%       33.4%       23.3%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%       16.2%        8.1%
 55kt / 48h       10.4%       10.4%       10.4%
 70kt / 48h       10.4%        9.1%        9.7%
 65kt / 72h        3.7%        6.1%        4.9%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.02

 EP072023 230813 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     15.00    114.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    15.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     83.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        20.5  17.9  15.1  17.4  17.5  17.2  19.1  23.2  N  N  U  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   61.0  58.0  57.0  55.0  54.0  48.0  44.0  34.0  N  F  F  F  F  F VF VF
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   1.0   0.0   0.0  -1.0   2.0  -1.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%