Rapid Intensification Guidance EP072023 230813 12UTC Storm Located at : 15.30 115.60 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 50. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 50.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 15.00 F CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 31.00 U CONVECTION <-60C [%] 13.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 7.40 F TC SIZE [%] 53.00 F Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 18.2 14.7 15.3 17.5 22.4 17.7 22.7 22.6 F F F F N F N N Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 17.0 19.0 22.0 22.0 19.0 12.0 2.0 0.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 105.1 102.9 102.9 100.7 86.6 84.8 71.1 68.0 N N N N N N U U 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 38.0 33.0 45.0 43.0 15.0 -24.0 -26.0 -17.0 N N N N U VU VU U Humidity 700-500 hPa 57.0 56.0 54.0 55.0 51.0 45.0 35.0 30.0 U U U U U VU VU VU T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 0.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -1.0 -1.0 0.0 N N N N N N N N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 13.9% 9.7% 11.8% 25kt / 24h 23.9% 35.4% 29.6% 30kt / 24h 23.9% 22.6% 23.2% 35kt / 24h 23.9% 22.6% 23.2% 40kt / 24h 23.9% 22.6% 23.2% 45kt / 36h 12.0% 28.9% 20.5% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 13.6% 6.8% 55kt / 48h 6.8% 6.8% 6.8% 70kt / 48h 6.8% 5.8% 6.3% 65kt / 72h 1.3% 3.2% 2.2% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 27.94 EP072023 230813 12UTC Storm Located at : 15.30 115.60 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 50. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 50.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 15.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F TC SIZE [%] 53.00 U Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 18.2 14.7 15.3 17.5 22.4 17.7 22.7 22.6 N U U N N N N N Humidity 700-500 hPa 57.0 56.0 54.0 55.0 51.0 45.0 35.0 30.0 F F F F F VF VF VF T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 0.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -1.0 -1.0 0.0 N N N N N N N N Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%