Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP072023 230813 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     15.50    116.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    65.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    65.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    20.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     57.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     30.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     58.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        15.8  15.3  15.9  21.1  24.6  21.4  26.8  22.6  F  F  F  N  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   19.0  23.0  27.0  26.0  18.0   4.0   1.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         90.1  87.9  77.4  73.5  71.6  59.3  56.1  53.0  N  N  U  U  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    26.0  47.0  39.0  28.0   8.0 -16.0  13.0 -20.0  U  N  N  U  U  U  U VU
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   56.0  56.0  56.0  53.0  50.0  43.0  36.0  33.0  U  U  U  U  U VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   1.0   2.0   0.0   0.0   3.0  -1.0   1.0   5.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       49.4%       28.5%       38.9%
 25kt / 24h       45.4%       47.9%       46.7%
 30kt / 24h       45.4%       41.0%       43.2%
 35kt / 24h       45.4%       41.0%       43.2%
 40kt / 24h       45.4%       41.0%       43.2%
 45kt / 36h       17.4%       30.5%       24.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%       16.8%        8.4%
 55kt / 48h        3.7%        4.9%        4.3%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 27.70

 EP072023 230813 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     15.50    116.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    65.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    65.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    20.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     58.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        15.8  15.3  15.9  21.1  24.6  21.4  26.8  22.6  U  U  U  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   56.0  56.0  56.0  53.0  50.0  43.0  36.0  33.0  F  F  F  F  F VF VF VF
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   1.0   2.0   0.0   0.0   3.0  -1.0   1.0   5.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%