Rapid Intensification Guidance EP072023 230814 00UTC Storm Located at : 15.50 116.80 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 85. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 85.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 35.00 F CORE SIZE [km] 3.80 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 73.00 N CONVECTION <-60C [%] 39.00 N IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 9.90 F TC SIZE [%] 79.00 F Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 12.8 15.2 21.3 23.5 21.2 23.1 21.2 21.7 F F N N N N N N Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 20.0 23.0 26.0 23.0 17.0 2.0 0.0 0.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 67.9 65.7 57.4 53.5 49.8 37.7 34.6 33.0 U U U U U U VU VU 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 50.0 45.0 23.0 30.0 -17.0 19.0 -34.0 -6.0 N N U N U U VU U Humidity 700-500 hPa 55.0 56.0 54.0 53.0 51.0 43.0 39.0 36.0 U U U U U VU VU VU T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.0 0.0 -1.0 0.0 6.0 N N N N N N N N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 63.4% 36.1% 49.8% 25kt / 24h 37.3% 40.9% 39.1% 30kt / 24h 37.3% 38.1% 37.7% 35kt / 24h 37.3% 38.1% 37.7% 40kt / 24h 37.3% 36.8% 37.1% 45kt / 36h 28.9% 23.4% 26.1% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 27.66 EP072023 230814 00UTC Storm Located at : 15.50 116.80 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 85. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 85.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 35.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 3.80 F TC SIZE [%] 79.00 U Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 12.8 15.2 21.3 23.5 21.2 23.1 21.2 21.7 U U N N N N N N Humidity 700-500 hPa 55.0 56.0 54.0 53.0 51.0 43.0 39.0 36.0 F F F F F VF VF VF T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.0 0.0 -1.0 0.0 6.0 N N N N N N N N Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.2% 0.1%