Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP072023 230814 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     15.70    118.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   115.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   115.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    30.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     4.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     75.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     46.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     68.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        19.4  23.5  23.0  21.3  24.3  24.7  25.9  24.7  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   23.0  21.0  18.0  15.0   1.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         27.4  23.5  21.6  19.8   7.7   3.0   3.0   0.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    23.0   2.0  11.0   7.0  21.0 -40.0  -5.0 -29.0  U  U  U  U  U VU  U VU
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   52.0  51.0  48.0  49.0  40.0  36.0  33.0  28.0  U  U  U  U VU VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -1.0   0.0   0.0  -2.0  -2.0   1.0   5.0   5.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       25.8%        0.0%       12.9%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 27.30

 EP072023 230814 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     15.70    118.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   115.