Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP072023 230814 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     15.80    118.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   115.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   115.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     4.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     63.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     34.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     66.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        22.1  23.3  22.3  23.8  25.9  24.1  25.3  26.2  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   21.0  18.0  15.0   9.0   1.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         23.5  21.6  19.8   9.3   6.1   3.0   1.5   0.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    30.0  14.0   7.0  15.0   8.0 -36.0  -5.0 -30.0  N  U  U  U  U VU  U VU
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   51.0  49.0  49.0  45.0  38.0  33.0  31.0  27.0  U  U  U VU VU VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   0.0   0.0  -3.0   0.0   1.0   8.0   1.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        9.5%        0.0%        4.7%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 27.10

 EP072023 230814 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     15.80    118.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   115.