Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP072023 230815 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     16.30    119.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   110.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   110.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     60.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     38.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.50             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     62.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        22.3  22.4  22.7  24.8  22.3  26.1  23.9  25.7  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   20.0  17.0   7.0   1.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         28.5  17.7  16.0  14.3   9.6  -0.6  -2.0  -3.3 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    26.0  -2.0  28.0  48.0 -34.0 -27.0   2.0   0.0  U  U  U  N VU VU  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   50.0  49.0  44.0  42.0  37.0  32.0  31.0  26.0  U  U VU VU VU VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -1.0  -3.0  -4.0  -1.0   0.0   6.0   4.0   4.0  N  N  F  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.9%        0.0%        0.4%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 26.80

 EP072023 230815 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     16.30    119.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   110.