Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP072023 230815 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     16.80    120.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    95.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    95.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -20.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     6.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     68.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     44.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     63.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        21.2  23.3  25.3  23.7  24.0  26.4  26.7  21.5  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   17.0   9.0   1.0   1.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         32.7  31.0  29.3  27.7  24.6  13.0  13.0  11.7 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]     0.0  24.0  58.0  18.0 -43.0  -9.0 -50.0 -19.0  U  U  N  U VU  U VU  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   48.0  43.0  41.0  39.0  37.0  32.0  28.0  26.0  U VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -4.0  -6.0  -2.0   0.0   1.0   7.0   1.0   8.0  F  F  N  N  N  N  N  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 25kt / 24h        0.1%        0.2%        0.2%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 26.60

 EP072023 230815 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     16.80    120.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    95.