Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP072023 230815 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     17.20    122.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    95.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    95.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     9.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     61.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     37.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.70             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     67.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        22.9  23.7  23.8  24.7  25.7  26.2  22.9  24.6  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    1.0   1.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         29.3  27.7  26.1  24.6  24.6  13.0  11.7  10.4 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    26.0  21.0 -20.0 -32.0  -2.0 -48.0 -28.0  17.0  U  U VU VU  U VU VU  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   43.0  41.0  39.0  38.0  34.0  30.0  26.0  24.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -2.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   3.0   2.0   7.0   3.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        1.7%        0.0%        0.8%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 26.30

 EP072023 230815 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     17.20    122.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    95.