Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP072023 230816 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     17.40    123.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    85.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    85.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     82.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     39.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     73.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        22.7  23.3  24.4  26.2  25.4  27.3  21.1  20.7  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    1.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         37.7  34.6  34.6  34.6  31.5  21.7  20.4  21.7  U VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    22.0 -26.0 -38.0  -5.0 -28.0 -43.0  -7.0   8.0  U VU VU  U VU VU  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   39.0  38.0  36.0  35.0  33.0  29.0  28.0  24.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -3.0  -2.0  -1.0   0.0   1.0   2.0   3.0   7.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.3%        0.5%        0.4%
 25kt / 24h        0.2%        0.6%        0.4%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.3%        0.3%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 26.20

 EP072023 230816 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     17.40    123.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    85.