Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP072023 230816 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     17.20    126.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    55.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    55.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -30.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     11.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      3.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.70             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     74.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        25.4  26.9  29.0  28.4  27.5  21.3  21.9  15.3  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   1.0   1.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         64.6  64.6  63.0  61.5  60.0  58.6  57.2  58.6  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   -27.0 -22.0   9.0   4.0 -36.0 -28.0  10.0 -13.0 VU VU  U  U VU VU  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   36.0  35.0  34.0  33.0  30.0  28.0  24.0  23.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -3.0  -1.0   0.0   0.0   1.0   3.0   6.0   6.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.2%        0.0%        0.1%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.0%        0.1%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 26.04

 EP072023 230816 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     17.20    126.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    55.