Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP072023 230816 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     16.80    127.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -25.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     6.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      1.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      2.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     54.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        24.8  27.3  26.7  26.8  22.6  21.3  19.2  13.6  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   1.0   1.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         84.4  82.7  81.0  81.0  77.7  74.6  74.6  74.6  N  N  N  N  N  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   -23.0   0.0   1.0  -1.0 -27.0 -15.0  15.0   0.0 VU  U  U  U VU  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   36.0  35.0  34.0  31.0  29.0  26.0  25.0  23.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   2.0   0.0  -2.0   4.0   2.0   6.0   2.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.2%        0.1%        0.1%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.0%        0.1%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 26.60

 EP072023 230816 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     16.80    127.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.