Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP072023 230817 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     16.40    131.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      0.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      0.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     44.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        26.9  27.2  23.0  20.4  19.1  12.3  15.0  15.0  N  N  N  N  N  F  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    1.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         96.0  94.3  92.7  92.7  89.6  89.6  91.1  91.1  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   -11.0  -1.0   7.0 -26.0   8.0   8.0  -2.0  -2.0  U  U  U VU  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   31.0  29.0  28.0  28.0  25.0  24.0  25.0  25.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   0.0   3.0   1.0   3.0   5.0   3.0   3.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.2%        0.2%        0.2%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.0%        0.1%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.4%        0.2%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.4%        0.4%        0.4%
 70kt / 48h        0.4%        0.1%        0.2%
 65kt / 72h        2.8%        0.4%        1.6%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 26.40

 EP072023 230817 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     16.40    131.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.