Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP082023 230814 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     11.40    138.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     19.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      8.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      6.70             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     88.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        16.2  12.6  12.1  14.0  16.4  17.0  19.9  18.2  F  F  F  F  F  F  N  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   23.0  25.0  10.0   7.0  10.0   9.0   3.0   5.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        127.3 127.3 125.1 125.1 125.1 116.5 110.5 110.5  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    92.0  25.0 -26.0  -8.0 -15.0  -4.0   3.0   5.0  F  U VU  U  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   59.0  58.0  58.0  60.0  63.0  60.0  56.0  54.0  U  U  U  N  N  N  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -2.0  -2.0  -1.0   0.0  -4.0   0.0   0.0   1.0  N  N  N  N  F  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        1.1%        2.1%        1.6%
 25kt / 24h        3.4%       16.6%       10.0%
 30kt / 24h        1.9%        7.0%        4.4%
 35kt / 24h        0.8%        6.6%        3.7%
 40kt / 24h        0.8%        6.6%        3.7%
 45kt / 36h        3.4%       23.7%       13.5%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        9.7%        4.8%
 55kt / 48h        5.6%        8.0%        6.8%
 70kt / 48h        3.9%        7.6%        5.7%
 65kt / 72h        3.8%       10.8%        7.3%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.06

 EP082023 230814 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     11.40    138.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     88.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        16.2  12.6  12.1  14.0  16.4  17.0  19.9  18.2  U  U  U  U  U  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   59.0  58.0  58.0  60.0  63.0  60.0  56.0  54.0  F  F  F  N  N  N  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -2.0  -2.0  -1.0   0.0  -4.0   0.0   0.0   1.0  N  N  N  N  U  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%