Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP082023 230814 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     11.30    139.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     25.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      6.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      5.30             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     56.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        12.1  13.4  15.9  19.6  14.9  19.2  18.4  20.4  F  F  F  N  F  N  F  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   24.0  10.0   7.0   8.0  11.0   4.0   5.0   4.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        127.3 125.1 125.1 125.1 118.6 116.5 110.5 110.5  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    48.0  -2.0 -19.0 -35.0 -25.0  13.0   6.0 -24.0  N  U  U VU VU  U  U VU
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   58.0  58.0  60.0  63.0  61.0  57.0  55.0  55.0  U  U  N  N  N  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -2.0  -2.0   0.0  -3.0  -3.0   0.0   0.0  -1.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.4%        1.8%        1.1%
 25kt / 24h        1.1%       11.6%        6.3%
 30kt / 24h        0.6%        4.7%        2.7%
 35kt / 24h        0.6%        4.2%        2.4%
 40kt / 24h        0.6%        4.2%        2.4%
 45kt / 36h        1.3%       16.6%        9.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        5.8%        2.9%
 55kt / 48h        3.0%        5.2%        4.1%
 70kt / 48h        1.7%        4.2%        2.9%
 65kt / 72h        2.3%        7.3%        4.8%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.04

 EP082023 230814 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     11.30    139.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     56.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        12.1  13.4  15.9  19.6  14.9  19.2  18.4  20.4  U  U  U  N  U  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   58.0  58.0  60.0  63.0  61.0  57.0  55.0  55.0  F  F  N  N  N  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -2.0  -2.0   0.0  -3.0  -3.0   0.0   0.0  -1.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%