Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP082023 230814 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     11.30    140.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     22.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      5.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      4.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     49.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        12.8  14.6  17.7  17.1  15.9  17.4  18.5  17.5  F  F  F  F  F  F  N  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   12.0   9.0   9.0  13.0  13.0   8.0   4.0   3.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        120.1 120.1 120.1 120.1 117.9 111.5 111.5 111.5  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    27.0  15.0 -19.0 -32.0 -21.0   6.0  18.0  -1.0  U  U  U VU VU  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   58.0  60.0  63.0  64.0  59.0  57.0  57.0  57.0  U  N  N  N  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -1.0  -2.0  -2.0  -4.0  -1.0   0.0   0.0  -2.0  N  N  N  F  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        1.5%        3.1%        2.3%
 25kt / 24h        2.9%       16.5%        9.7%
 30kt / 24h        2.2%        7.1%        4.6%
 35kt / 24h        2.2%        6.8%        4.5%
 40kt / 24h        2.2%        6.8%        4.5%
 45kt / 36h        3.4%       22.3%       12.8%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        8.5%        4.2%
 55kt / 48h        4.0%        6.5%        5.3%
 70kt / 48h        2.5%        5.5%        4.0%
 65kt / 72h        2.5%        8.9%        5.7%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.02

 EP082023 230814 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     11.30    140.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     49.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        12.8  14.6  17.7  17.1  15.9  17.4  18.5  17.5  U  U  N  N  U  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   58.0  60.0  63.0  64.0  59.0  57.0  57.0  57.0  F  N  N  N  F  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -1.0  -2.0  -2.0  -4.0  -1.0   0.0   0.0  -2.0  N  N  N  U  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%