Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP082023 230814 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     11.30    141.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     12.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      1.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      3.50             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     40.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        16.0  18.0  18.5  16.3  17.6  15.9  16.8  14.2  F  F  N  F  F  F  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   10.0   8.0  11.0  14.0  11.0   8.0   3.0   4.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        120.1 120.1 120.1 120.1 117.9 111.5 111.5 111.5  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]     1.0 -39.0 -22.0 -18.0 -10.0  -7.0 -12.0  -9.0  U VU VU  U  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   60.0  63.0  65.0  64.0  63.0  62.0  62.0  60.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -1.0  -3.0  -4.0  -3.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  N  N  F  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.4%        1.3%        0.8%
 25kt / 24h        0.8%        7.6%        4.2%
 30kt / 24h        0.8%        2.9%        1.8%
 35kt / 24h        0.8%        2.6%        1.7%
 40kt / 24h        0.8%        2.6%        1.7%
 45kt / 36h        0.9%       10.0%        5.4%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        2.9%        1.5%
 55kt / 48h        1.4%        3.3%        2.4%
 70kt / 48h        0.5%        2.1%        1.3%
 65kt / 72h        0.9%        5.1%        3.0%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.00

 EP082023 230814 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     11.30    141.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     40.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        16.0  18.0  18.5  16.3  17.6  15.9  16.8  14.2  U  N  N  U  N  U  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   60.0  63.0  65.0  64.0  63.0  62.0  62.0  60.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -1.0  -3.0  -4.0  -3.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  N  N  U  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%