Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP082023 230815 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     11.30    142.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     15.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      6.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      5.10             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     34.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        19.1  19.6  17.8  16.9  17.9  15.5  17.4  17.1  N  N  F  F  F  F  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    9.0  12.0  14.0  13.0   8.0   4.0   3.0  11.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        115.1 115.1 112.9 112.9 106.5 106.5 106.5 106.5  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   -20.0  -8.0 -24.0 -16.0  -2.0  -8.0 -17.0 -13.0 VU  U VU  U  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   61.0  61.0  60.0  59.0  57.0  59.0  57.0  53.0  N  N  N  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -3.0  -4.0  -3.0  -1.0  -2.0   0.0  -1.0   0.0  N  F  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        1.4%        2.0%        1.7%
 25kt / 24h        2.4%        9.8%        6.1%
 30kt / 24h        2.4%        4.1%        3.2%
 35kt / 24h        2.4%        4.0%        3.2%
 40kt / 24h        2.4%        4.0%        3.2%
 45kt / 36h        1.7%       11.1%        6.4%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        3.6%        1.8%
 55kt / 48h        1.5%        3.3%        2.4%
 70kt / 48h        0.7%        2.4%        1.6%
 65kt / 72h        0.6%        4.4%        2.5%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 27.96

 EP082023 230815 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     11.30    142.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     34.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        19.1  19.6  17.8  16.9  17.9  15.5  17.4  17.1  N  N  N  N  N  U  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   61.0  61.0  60.0  59.0  57.0  59.0  57.0  53.0  N  N  N  F  F  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -3.0  -4.0  -3.0  -1.0  -2.0   0.0  -1.0   0.0  N  U  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%