Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP082023 230815 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     11.10    143.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     22.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      9.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      7.50             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     40.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        18.0  17.6  16.8  17.8  16.3  18.7  15.7  18.3  F  F  F  F  F  N  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   13.0  15.0  14.0  12.0   8.0   3.0   4.0  12.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        110.1 107.9 107.9 107.9 101.5 101.5 101.5 101.5  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    -5.0  -9.0  -9.0   5.0  14.0  -8.0 -10.0  -8.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   59.0  57.0  57.0  57.0  58.0  58.0  54.0  51.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -5.0  -3.0  -2.0  -1.0  -1.0  -2.0  -3.0  -5.0  F  N  N  N  N  N  N  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        2.1%        2.5%        2.3%
 25kt / 24h        3.4%       11.6%        7.5%
 30kt / 24h        3.4%        5.5%        4.4%
 35kt / 24h        3.4%        5.4%        4.4%
 40kt / 24h        3.4%        5.4%        4.4%
 45kt / 36h        2.9%       12.1%        7.5%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        4.3%        2.2%
 55kt / 48h        2.1%        3.9%        3.0%
 70kt / 48h        1.1%        2.5%        1.8%
 65kt / 72h        1.0%        4.5%        2.8%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 27.94

 EP082023 230815 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     11.10    143.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     40.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        18.0  17.6  16.8  17.8  16.3  18.7  15.7  18.3  N  N  N  N  U  N  U  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   59.0  57.0  57.0  57.0  58.0  58.0  54.0  51.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -5.0  -3.0  -2.0  -1.0  -1.0  -2.0  -3.0  -5.0  U  N  N  N  N  N  N  U


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%