Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP082023 230815 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     11.10    145.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     12.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      7.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      4.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     27.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        16.4  17.6  19.1  17.3  18.4  18.3  16.2  21.8  F  F  N  F  F  F  F  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   12.0  11.0   8.0   8.0   7.0   5.0   5.0   8.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        107.9 107.9 107.9 107.9 101.5 101.5 101.5 101.5  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   -11.0 -17.0   3.0   6.0  19.0 -12.0  -9.0 -27.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U VU
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   55.0  57.0  56.0  57.0  60.0  57.0  52.0  50.0  U  U  U  U  N  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -5.0  -1.0  -1.0  -1.0   1.0  -3.0  -3.0  -3.0  F  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        2.1%        2.4%        2.2%
 25kt / 24h        4.7%       10.0%        7.4%
 30kt / 24h        4.7%        4.2%        4.5%
 35kt / 24h        4.7%        4.2%        4.5%
 40kt / 24h        4.7%        4.2%        4.5%
 45kt / 36h        2.4%       10.0%        6.2%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        3.0%        1.5%
 55kt / 48h        1.5%        2.8%        2.2%
 70kt / 48h        0.8%        1.8%        1.3%
 65kt / 72h        0.4%        3.2%        1.8%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 27.92

 EP082023 230815 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     11.10    145.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     27.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        16.4  17.6  19.1  17.3  18.4  18.3  16.2  21.8  U  N  N  N  N  N  U  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   55.0  57.0  56.0  57.0  60.0  57.0  52.0  50.0  F  F  F  F  N  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -5.0  -1.0  -1.0  -1.0   1.0  -3.0  -3.0  -3.0  U  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%