Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP082023 230815 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     11.20    146.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     54.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     29.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     33.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        17.7  19.4  17.1  15.0  19.4  21.0  20.2  23.4  F  N  F  F  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   11.0   9.0   8.0   7.0   6.0   3.0   8.0  10.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        107.9 107.9 107.9 101.5 101.5 101.5 101.5 107.9  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   -29.0  -3.0   5.0  24.0   5.0 -40.0 -30.0 -50.0 VU  U  U  U  U VU VU VU
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   56.0  56.0  57.0  58.0  58.0  54.0  49.0  45.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -1.0  -1.0  -3.0  -1.0  -2.0  -4.0  -4.0  -3.0  N  N  N  N  N  F  F  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        1.1%        2.6%        1.9%
 25kt / 24h        2.3%       13.0%        7.7%
 30kt / 24h        2.3%        7.0%        4.6%
 35kt / 24h        2.3%        6.5%        4.4%
 40kt / 24h        2.3%        6.5%        4.4%
 45kt / 36h        1.6%       12.6%        7.1%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        4.8%        2.4%
 55kt / 48h        1.1%        3.7%        2.4%
 70kt / 48h        0.3%        2.2%        1.2%
 65kt / 72h        0.1%        3.3%        1.7%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 27.84

 EP082023 230815 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     11.20    146.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     33.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        17.7  19.4  17.1  15.0  19.4  21.0  20.2  23.4  N  N  N  U  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   56.0  56.0  57.0  58.0  58.0  54.0  49.0  45.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F VF
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -1.0  -1.0  -3.0  -1.0  -2.0  -4.0  -4.0  -3.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  U  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%