Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP082023 230816 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     11.30    147.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     7.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     32.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     10.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     62.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        21.2  18.4  16.8  18.6  21.2  19.0  20.8  20.0  N  F  F  N  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    9.0   8.0   8.0   8.0   5.0   6.0   9.0  12.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        107.9 107.9 101.5 101.5 101.5 101.5 101.5 107.9  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]     5.0   4.0   0.0  18.0  -2.0   6.0 -10.0 -15.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   55.0  57.0  58.0  60.0  58.0  52.0  52.0  46.0  U  U  U  N  U  U  U VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -3.0  -3.0  -1.0   0.0  -3.0  -1.0  -1.0  -2.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.8%        1.4%        1.1%
 25kt / 24h        0.8%        6.7%        3.7%
 30kt / 24h        0.6%        3.1%        1.8%
 35kt / 24h        0.6%        2.8%        1.7%
 40kt / 24h        0.6%        2.8%        1.7%
 45kt / 36h        0.6%        5.7%        3.1%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        1.8%        0.9%
 55kt / 48h        0.3%        1.9%        1.1%
 70kt / 48h        0.1%        1.0%        0.6%
 65kt / 72h        0.2%        2.3%        1.2%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 27.78

 EP082023 230816 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     11.30    147.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     7.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     62.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        21.2  18.4  16.8  18.6  21.2  19.0  20.8  20.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   55.0  57.0  58.0  60.0  58.0  52.0  52.0  46.0  F  F  F  N  F  F  F VF
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -3.0  -3.0  -1.0   0.0  -3.0  -1.0  -1.0  -2.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%