Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP082023 230816 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     11.70    149.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     26.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     18.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      5.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     50.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        19.2  17.1  17.8  21.6  21.5  18.3  22.9  17.2  N  F  F  N  N  F  N  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    8.0   8.0   8.0   6.0   3.0   8.0   9.0  19.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        107.9 101.5 101.5 101.5 101.5 101.5 103.6 110.1  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]     1.0  17.0  43.0  27.0 -16.0  -5.0 -14.0 -23.0  U  U  N  U  U  U  U VU
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   55.0  56.0  58.0  59.0  53.0  52.0  50.0  46.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -4.0  -2.0   0.0  -2.0  -2.0  -3.0  -1.0  -3.0  F  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.9%        1.3%        1.1%
 25kt / 24h        1.0%        6.3%        3.6%
 30kt / 24h        1.0%        2.6%        1.8%
 35kt / 24h        1.0%        2.4%        1.7%
 40kt / 24h        1.0%        2.4%        1.7%
 45kt / 36h        0.6%        5.4%        3.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        1.5%        0.7%
 55kt / 48h        0.4%        1.7%        1.1%
 70kt / 48h        0.2%        1.0%        0.6%
 65kt / 72h        0.5%        2.1%        1.3%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 27.72

 EP082023 230816 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     11.70    149.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     50.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        19.2  17.1  17.8  21.6  21.5  18.3  22.9  17.2  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   55.0  56.0  58.0  59.0  53.0  52.0  50.0  46.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F VF
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -4.0  -2.0   0.0  -2.0  -2.0  -3.0  -1.0  -3.0  U  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%