Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP082023 230816 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     11.70    150.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     5.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     20.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     14.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      3.50             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     37.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        17.3  20.5  23.4  21.6  19.5  20.6  19.4  15.6  F  N  N  N  N  N  N  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    8.0   8.0   7.0   5.0   7.0   9.0  13.0  41.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  N
 Potential [kt]        101.5 101.5 101.5 101.5 101.5 101.5 110.1 110.1  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    16.0  39.0  14.0 -10.0   3.0  -3.0 -14.0 -12.0  U  N  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   55.0  58.0  59.0  57.0  52.0  50.0  46.0  45.0  U  U  U  U  U  U VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -1.0  -1.0  -4.0  -5.0  -2.0  -2.0  -2.0  -3.0  N  N  F  F  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.8%        1.2%        1.0%
 25kt / 24h        1.1%        4.8%        2.9%
 30kt / 24h        1.1%        1.8%        1.4%
 35kt / 24h        1.1%        1.7%        1.4%
 40kt / 24h        1.1%        1.7%        1.4%
 45kt / 36h        0.5%        4.6%        2.5%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        1.1%        0.6%
 55kt / 48h        0.3%        1.4%        0.9%
 70kt / 48h        0.2%        0.8%        0.5%
 65kt / 72h        1.2%        2.4%        1.8%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 27.66

 EP082023 230816 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     11.70    150.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     5.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     37.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        17.3  20.5  23.4  21.6  19.5  20.6  19.4  15.6  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   55.0  58.0  59.0  57.0  52.0  50.0  46.0  45.0  F  F  F  F  F  F VF VF
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -1.0  -1.0  -4.0  -5.0  -2.0  -2.0  -2.0  -3.0  N  N  U  U  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%