Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP082023 230816 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     11.80    151.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     5.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     22.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      8.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      5.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     37.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        20.1  21.4  19.8  18.4  16.4  20.9  17.2  18.3  N  N  N  F  F  N  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    8.0   7.0   5.0   3.0  11.0  11.0  21.0  42.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  N
 Potential [kt]        112.9 106.5 106.5 106.5 112.9 112.9 115.1 122.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    18.0  12.0  -4.0   5.0  -6.0  -6.0 -21.0  10.0  U  U  U  U  U  U VU  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   57.0  58.0  58.0  55.0  51.0  49.0  48.0  49.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -1.0  -4.0  -5.0  -4.0  -2.0  -2.0  -4.0  -3.0  N  F  F  F  N  N  F  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.1%        0.6%        0.4%
 25kt / 24h        0.5%        3.5%        2.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.3%        1.3%        0.8%
 35kt / 24h        0.3%        1.1%        0.7%
 40kt / 24h        0.3%        1.1%        0.7%
 45kt / 36h        0.3%        4.3%        2.3%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        1.1%        0.5%
 55kt / 48h        0.4%        1.8%        1.1%
 70kt / 48h        0.2%        0.8%        0.5%
 65kt / 72h        2.7%        3.3%        3.0%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 27.72

 EP082023 230816 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     11.80    151.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     5.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     37.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        20.1  21.4  19.8  18.4  16.4  20.9  17.2  18.3  N  N  N  N  U  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   57.0  58.0  58.0  55.0  51.0  49.0  48.0  49.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -1.0  -4.0  -5.0  -4.0  -2.0  -2.0  -4.0  -3.0  N  U  U  U  N  N  U  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%