Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP082023 230817 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     12.00    152.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     29.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     20.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      5.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     61.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        21.1  19.9  17.6  16.3  18.3  19.8  15.1  15.3  N  N  F  F  F  N  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    7.0   5.0   3.0   6.0  10.0  11.0  35.0  39.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        106.5 106.5 106.5 106.5 106.5 112.9 115.1 115.1  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    10.0   2.0   0.0  16.0  16.0 -13.0 -19.0  26.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   56.0  56.0  53.0  51.0  50.0  48.0  48.0  49.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -3.0  -4.0  -2.0   0.0   0.0  -1.0  -3.0  -1.0  N  F  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.1%        0.5%        0.3%
 25kt / 24h        0.5%        3.6%        2.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.3%        1.4%        0.8%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        1.1%        0.6%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        1.1%        0.6%
 45kt / 36h        0.3%        4.3%        2.3%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        1.1%        0.6%
 55kt / 48h        0.4%        1.6%        1.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.2%        0.9%        0.6%
 65kt / 72h        4.2%        3.8%        4.0%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 27.60

 EP082023 230817 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     12.00    152.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     61.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        21.1  19.9  17.6  16.3  18.3  19.8  15.1  15.3  N  N  N  U  N  N  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   56.0  56.0  53.0  51.0  50.0  48.0  48.0  49.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -3.0  -4.0  -2.0   0.0   0.0  -1.0  -3.0  -1.0  N  U  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%