Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP082023 230817 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     12.10    153.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     9.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      6.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      2.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      3.10             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     57.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        20.1  17.1  14.9  14.1  16.8  14.7  12.8  14.4  N  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    5.0   3.0   6.0  10.0  10.0  17.0  45.0  36.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  N  U
 Potential [kt]        106.5 106.5 106.5 106.5 112.9 115.1 115.1 122.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]     5.0   2.0  12.0   2.0   5.0 -11.0  18.0  21.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   57.0  54.0  54.0  52.0  50.0  49.0  49.0  52.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -2.0   0.0   0.0  -2.0  -2.0  -4.0  -3.0  -2.0  N  N  N  N  N  F  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.3%        0.7%        0.5%
 25kt / 24h        0.6%        4.2%        2.4%
 30kt / 24h        0.4%        1.5%        0.9%
 35kt / 24h        0.4%        1.3%        0.9%
 40kt / 24h        0.4%        1.3%        0.9%
 45kt / 36h        0.6%        5.6%        3.1%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        1.5%        0.7%
 55kt / 48h        1.1%        2.1%        1.6%
 70kt / 48h        1.0%        1.3%        1.2%
 65kt / 72h        7.2%        5.9%        6.6%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 27.60

 EP082023 230817 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     12.10    153.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     9.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     57.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        20.1  17.1  14.9  14.1  16.8  14.7  12.8  14.4  N  N  U  U  N  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   57.0  54.0  54.0  52.0  50.0  49.0  49.0  52.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -2.0   0.0   0.0  -2.0  -2.0  -4.0  -3.0  -2.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%