Rapid Intensification Guidance EP082023 230817 12UTC Storm Located at : 12.00 155.00 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 35. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 35.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -5.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 11.40 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 0.00 VU CONVECTION <-60C [%] 0.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 0.50 F TC SIZE [%] 47.00 F Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 16.9 15.2 14.2 14.6 17.1 11.5 12.9 12.9 F F F F F F F F Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 8.0 20.0 30.0 19.0 14.0 27.0 37.0 43.0 U U U U U U U N Potential [kt] 111.5 111.5 117.9 117.9 117.9 120.1 127.0 130.0 N N N N N N N F 200mb Divg [10^6/s] -11.0 0.0 2.0 -8.0 -9.0 -2.0 12.0 27.0 U U U U U U U U Humidity 700-500 hPa 55.0 55.0 55.0 55.0 52.0 50.0 52.0 55.0 U U U U U U U U T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -2.0 -3.0 -1.0 -1.0 N N N N N N N N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.0% 0.4% 0.2% 25kt / 24h 0.5% 3.4% 1.9% 30kt / 24h 0.3% 1.1% 0.7% 35kt / 24h 0.1% 0.9% 0.5% 40kt / 24h 0.1% 0.9% 0.5% 45kt / 36h 0.3% 4.6% 2.5% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 1.0% 0.5% 55kt / 48h 1.8% 2.3% 2.0% 70kt / 48h 1.4% 1.2% 1.3% 65kt / 72h 13.1% 7.5% 10.3% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 27.72 EP082023 230817 12UTC Storm Located at : 12.00 155.00 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 35. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 35.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -5.00 F CORE SIZE [km] 11.40 F TC SIZE [%] 47.00 U Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 16.9 15.2 14.2 14.6 17.1 11.5 12.9 12.9 N U U U N U U U Humidity 700-500 hPa 55.0 55.0 55.0 55.0 52.0 50.0 52.0 55.0 F F F F F F F F T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -2.0 -3.0 -1.0 -1.0 N N N N N N N N Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%