Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP082023 230817 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     12.20    156.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]    10.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      6.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      2.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      1.50             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     42.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        13.8  13.4  13.4  14.5  11.8  11.9  17.6  17.6  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   21.0  27.0  16.0  14.0  17.0  39.0  37.0  37.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        116.5 116.5 116.5 122.9 125.1 125.1 132.0 132.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    18.0   0.0  24.0   3.0   2.0  18.0  26.0  26.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   56.0  55.0  54.0  52.0  51.0  51.0  52.0  52.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0  -1.0  -1.0  -1.0  -3.0  -2.0  -3.0  -3.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.3%        0.2%
 25kt / 24h        0.3%        2.8%        1.5%
 30kt / 24h        0.3%        0.9%        0.6%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.7%        0.3%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.7%        0.3%
 45kt / 36h        0.3%        4.9%        2.6%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        1.1%        0.6%
 55kt / 48h        3.6%        3.0%        3.3%
 70kt / 48h        3.3%        1.7%        2.5%
 65kt / 72h       21.5%        8.8%       15.2%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 27.66

 EP082023 230817 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     12.20    156.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]    10.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     42.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        13.8  13.4  13.4  14.5  11.8  11.9  17.6  17.6  U  U  U  U  U  U  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   56.0  55.0  54.0  52.0  51.0  51.0  52.0  52.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0  -1.0  -1.0  -1.0  -3.0  -2.0  -3.0  -3.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%