Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP082023 230818 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     12.10    157.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     6.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      8.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      3.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     41.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        13.9  15.1  15.1  15.3  12.9  12.9  12.9  12.9  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   25.0  17.0  14.0  14.0  32.0  32.0  32.0  32.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        116.5 122.9 122.9 122.9 125.1 125.1 125.1 125.1  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   -11.0  13.0   2.0  14.0  23.0  23.0  23.0  23.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   53.0  53.0  52.0  50.0  52.0  52.0  52.0  52.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   0.0  -1.0  -1.0  -3.0  -3.0  -3.0  -3.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.6%        0.3%
 25kt / 24h        0.5%        4.7%        2.6%
 30kt / 24h        0.3%        1.6%        0.9%
 35kt / 24h        0.2%        1.3%        0.7%
 40kt / 24h        0.2%        1.3%        0.7%
 45kt / 36h        0.7%        9.1%        4.9%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        2.5%        1.2%
 55kt / 48h        5.6%        4.7%        5.1%
 70kt / 48h        5.6%        3.2%        4.4%
 65kt / 72h       25.0%       13.5%       19.3%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 27.78

 EP082023 230818 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     12.10    157.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     6.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     41.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        13.9  15.1  15.1  15.3  12.9  12.9  12.9  12.9  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   53.0  53.0  52.0  50.0  52.0  52.0  52.0  52.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   0.0  -1.0  -1.0  -3.0  -3.0  -3.0  -3.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%