Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP082023 230818 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     11.70    159.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     7.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      8.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      2.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      3.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     41.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        16.3  16.5  16.5  16.5  16.5  16.5  16.5  16.5  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   17.0  14.0  14.0  14.0  14.0  14.0  14.0  14.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        122.9 122.9 122.9 122.9 122.9 122.9 122.9 122.9  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    25.0  17.0  17.0  17.0  17.0  17.0  17.0  17.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   52.0  52.0  52.0  52.0  52.0  52.0  52.0  52.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0  -1.0  -1.0  -1.0  -1.0  -1.0  -1.0  -1.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.2%        1.0%        0.6%
 25kt / 24h        0.6%        7.1%        3.9%
 30kt / 24h        0.6%        2.5%        1.6%
 35kt / 24h        0.6%        2.2%        1.4%
 40kt / 24h        0.6%        2.2%        1.4%
 45kt / 36h        1.1%       11.6%        6.3%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        3.4%        1.7%
 55kt / 48h        3.7%        4.3%        4.0%
 70kt / 48h        3.7%        3.3%        3.5%
 65kt / 72h       10.8%        9.7%       10.3%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 27.90

 EP082023 230818 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     11.70    159.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     7.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     41.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        16.3  16.5  16.5  16.5  16.5  16.5  16.5  16.5  U  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   52.0  52.0  52.0  52.0  52.0  52.0  52.0  52.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0  -1.0  -1.0  -1.0  -1.0  -1.0  -1.0  -1.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%