Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP082023 230818 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     11.40    160.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     4.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     11.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      4.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     30.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        16.1  14.3  13.3  14.1  18.0  27.0  25.9  29.1  F  F  F  F  F  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   15.0  15.0  18.0  27.0  37.0  40.0  49.0  60.0  U  U  U  U  U  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]        122.9 125.1 125.1 125.1 125.1 127.3 127.3 129.6  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    13.0  20.0   6.0  11.0   9.0 -16.0 -10.0  -3.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   53.0  51.0  52.0  53.0  51.0  48.0  45.0  47.0  U  U  U  U  U  U VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0  -1.0  -3.0  -2.0   0.0  -1.0   2.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.2%        1.1%        0.6%
 25kt / 24h        1.1%        9.3%        5.2%
 30kt / 24h        1.1%        3.5%        2.3%
 35kt / 24h        1.1%        3.1%        2.1%
 40kt / 24h        1.1%        3.1%        2.1%
 45kt / 36h        2.0%       15.3%        8.6%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        4.9%        2.5%
 55kt / 48h        4.6%        5.0%        4.8%
 70kt / 48h        4.6%        3.6%        4.1%
 65kt / 72h       13.9%        8.4%       11.2%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 27.96

 EP082023 230818 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     11.40    160.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     4.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     30.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        16.1  14.3  13.3  14.1  18.0  27.0  25.9  29.1  U  U  U  U  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   53.0  51.0  52.0  53.0  51.0  48.0  45.0  47.0  F  F  F  F  F  F VF VF
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0  -1.0  -3.0  -2.0   0.0  -1.0   2.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%