Rapid Intensification Guidance EP092023 230816 18UTC Storm Located at : 13.40 103.10 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 35. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 35.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 0.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 4.20 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 73.00 N CONVECTION <-60C [%] 62.00 N IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 9.90 F TC SIZE [%] 138.00 U Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 10.6 13.9 11.0 9.3 10.7 10.9 13.8 19.4 F F F F F F F N Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 50.0 41.0 39.0 30.0 33.0 27.0 14.0 2.0 N N U U U U U U Potential [kt] 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 122.3 105.5 77.2 F F F F F N N U 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 146.0 172.0 152.0 177.0 178.0 158.0 146.0 149.0 VF VF VF VF VF VF VF VF Humidity 700-500 hPa 85.0 85.0 85.0 84.0 82.0 80.0 76.0 72.0 F F F F F F F N T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -7.0 -7.0 -7.0 -6.0 -6.0 2.0 0.0 2.0 F F F F F N N N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 2.7% 7.5% 5.1% 25kt / 24h 48.6% 67.4% 58.0% 30kt / 24h 17.2% 50.8% 34.0% 35kt / 24h 8.4% 50.8% 29.6% 40kt / 24h 4.2% 49.4% 26.8% 45kt / 36h 45.3% 77.0% 61.1% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 59.0% 29.5% 55kt / 48h 52.2% 75.0% 63.6% 70kt / 48h 24.8% 67.3% 46.1% 65kt / 72h 61.9% 70.7% 66.3% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 29.02 EP092023 230816 18UTC Storm Located at : 13.40 103.10 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 35. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 35.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 0.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 4.20 F TC SIZE [%] 138.00 F Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 10.6 13.9 11.0 9.3 10.7 10.9 13.8 19.4 U U U U U U U N Humidity 700-500 hPa 85.0 85.0 85.0 84.0 82.0 80.0 76.0 72.0 U U U U U U U N T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -7.0 -7.0 -7.0 -6.0 -6.0 2.0 0.0 2.0 U U U U U N N N Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%